Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 4.316105 5.130084 6.033509 7.107433 8.345932 9.726009 11.376737
2025-05-04 3.198326 4.318110 5.700490 7.517195 9.824564 12.638600 16.309112
2025-05-11 2.373403 3.583208 5.220374 7.561477 10.779943 14.999715 20.891171
2025-05-18 1.750113 2.925632 4.653243 7.314056 11.230088 16.687847 24.750168
2025-05-25 1.296984 2.385337 4.111581 6.955271 11.401985 17.939374 28.077960
2025-06-01 1.026638 2.058971 3.812079 6.876099 11.925395 19.694673 32.247794
2025-06-08 0.823392 1.793187 3.549231 6.791043 12.394901 21.378191 36.432026
2025-06-15 0.728315 1.702388 3.564901 7.164412 13.637228 24.366827 42.885901
2025-06-22 0.611393 1.537881 3.411222 7.203562 14.298099 26.455100 48.055844
2025-06-29 0.512912 1.386639 3.251929 7.199879 14.867774 28.423455 53.170147
2025-07-06 0.430652 1.250105 3.094770 7.170242 15.373942 30.310431 58.278764
2025-07-13 0.410116 1.257254 3.242581 7.772541 17.137039 34.562072 67.803792
2025-07-20 0.363218 1.188309 3.216120 8.020770 18.264310 37.808469 75.896525
2025-07-27 0.325654 1.135067 3.217636 8.332685 19.560700 41.492657 85.093028
2025-08-03 0.276796 1.035277 3.087888 8.330913 20.208187 44.000534 92.313398
2025-08-10 0.223576 0.904483 2.852353 8.044340 20.211449 45.248981 97.247396
2025-08-17 0.176286 0.775112 2.590764 7.648396 19.919237 45.869711 101.002124
2025-08-24 0.147818 0.699919 2.461622 7.560322 20.305338 47.894065 107.646433
2025-08-31 0.123934 0.632258 2.338787 7.467166 20.664599 49.884458 114.353816
2025-09-07 0.115986 0.625007 2.398081 7.872662 22.256606 54.617610 126.959150
2025-09-14 0.100659 0.580680 2.330518 7.915102 22.962519 57.477020 135.857550
2025-09-21 0.086607 0.535899 2.251210 7.911070 23.550216 60.117551 144.463804
2025-09-28 0.074123 0.492698 2.167050 7.878863 24.060768 62.620635 152.933867